Larry Summers on the Economics of Coronavirus

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Global security and pandemic risk

In related work, Mr Jamieson and I with Victoria Fan calculate the potential cost of a 1918 flu recurrence, discounted by its chance of happening. We expect to publish this work soon. On plausible assumptions we find an expected flu cost approaching $1tn a year in the 21st century. This underscores the urgency of doing all that can be done to counter pandemic risks.

Eisenhower famously said that “in preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable”. So also with the pandemic threat, which is what makes the GHRF report so important. I have three main takeaways from its consideration of the Ebola experience and its stock-taking of the current global architecture.